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THE HARD FILES · AN OPTIONS BRIEF, NOT A PLAN

The Downtown File

31.5% office vacancy · ~130 empty storefronts · a $48M plan with no money attached

This page is an options brief. It walks through the main ways cities try to revive a struggling downtown: the best evidence for and against each one, what it cost where it was actually tried, and what a London-sized version would likely cost — with the math shown, or honestly marked as not derivable. It exists so voters can demand costed answers instead of slogans.

It is not a plan, and it recommends nothing. Every option gets the same treatment: evidence for, evidence against, real costs, and who actually holds the power to decide. Where a tool is legally outside council's reach (like a storefront vacancy tax) or outside its control (like police deployment), the page says so.

Research was completed July 4, 2026, and every claim links to a source that loads and says what's claimed. The eight questions at the bottom go to every candidate in the race, equally, through the site's questionnaire, and their verbatim answers will appear here as they come in.

The honest numbers

Where London actually stands — every figure linked to its source.

The headline number: empty offices

  • Downtown office vacancy was 13.6% in 2019. It hit 31.4% in Q3 2024 (roughly 1.3 million sq ft empty) and stood at 31.5% in Q4 2025 — the highest downtown office vacancy of any major Canadian city CBRE tracks. CBC ↗
  • Q1 2026: still 31.5%, with more space emptying than filling (negative absorption, in industry terms) — while the national downtown average fell to 18.2%. London is moving against the national tide. CBRE Q1 2026 ↗
  • The pain sits in the older Class B and C buildings — Class A downtown is 19.8% vacant. Downtown holds just over 4.5 million sq ft, more than 75% of the city's office space, so what happens here is the citywide office story. CBC ↗
DOWNTOWN OFFICE VACANCY — TO SCALE
201913.6%
Q1 202631.5%

Still the highest downtown office vacancy of any major Canadian city CBRE tracks. CBC ↗

Storefronts and who lives downtown

  • 17% of downtown commercial retail spaces sat empty as of mid-2025 — about 350,000 sq ft and roughly 130 empty storefronts out of 660-plus, mostly on Richmond, Dundas and Wellington. CBC ↗
  • A 2023 staff report measured ground-floor retail vacancy at 18% using a different counting method — so "roughly flat" is the honest trend, not "improved." The same report found one owner, Farhi Holdings, held 59% of vacant downtown properties. CBC ↗
  • The number running the other way: downtown's residential population grew to 11,700-plus in 2025 from about 9,000 in 2021 — up 29% in five years versus 18% citywide. And 1,500-plus housing units were permitted downtown over 2021–2025, roughly 375 a year (derived from that total). Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
EMPTY, BY TYPE — TO SCALE
Offices31.5%
Storefronts17%

Office space and street-level storefronts are different problems with different fixes. CBC ↗

Downtown Reimagined: $48M, no money attached

  • The city's new 10-year downtown plan (June 2026) contains 58 actions and four "Big Moves": a dedicated Downtown Office with a permits-and-events concierge, upgraded public spaces, a "River District" connecting downtown to the Thames, and building on the UNESCO City of Music designation. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
  • The staff report's own words: implementing all actions costs "approximately $48 million," and "there are no immediate operating or capital budget impacts associated with this report." Funding is expected through the 2028, 2032 and 2036 budget cycles — so the $48M has no money attached yet, and the first real money decision belongs to the council elected this October. SPPC staff report (PDF) ↗
  • What actually got voted: committee received the plan, moved ahead only on actions that fit inside existing budgets, and pushed everything needing new money to the 2028–2031 budget. Skeptics on council said drug use and homelessness had to be addressed first; the development industry and downtown BIA backed the plan. CBC ↗

Feeling safe versus reported crime

  • Official reported crime is falling: the London area (CMA) Crime Severity Index was 61.2 in 2024, down 6% from 2023, against a national index of 77.9 (down 4%). The decline is driven by non-violent crime, now 29% below 2019; violent crime severity (76.17 in 2024) is still about 19% above 2019. London police recorded shootings down 48% (27 to 14) in 2024. StatCan ↗
  • Perception hasn't moved with it: the Nanos-run Community Voices survey scored "London as a safe place to live" at 6.4/10, unchanged from 2023, with 44% naming homelessness the top issue. The downtown plan's engagement found safety and visible drug use coming up again and again as reasons people avoid the core. CBC ↗
  • No downtown-specific public crime numbers exist — neither London police nor Statistics Canada publishes a downtown-level breakdown, so any candidate claim about "downtown crime rates" has no official public source. A candidate quoting only perception, or only the falling index, is giving half the picture. LPS annual report ↗

What London already runs and built

  • London already runs a full menu of downtown incentives through its Community Improvement Plan: façade loans (50% up to $50,000), building-code upgrade loans (up to $200,000), a redevelopment tax grant, 100% rebates on residential development charges, an office-to-residential grant of up to $35,000 per unit, and a fit-out grant for vacant storefronts (50% up to $50,000, about $975,000 a year). city incentives page ↗
  • On transit: the BRT Downtown Loop was completed in 2024 (King, Queens, Wellington, Ridout — four stops). What council killed in 2019 were the north ($147M, failed 5–8) and west ($72M) legs. CBC ↗
  • The East London Link and Wellington Gateway are still under construction, with full service expected late 2027 (East London Link) and late 2028 (Wellington Gateway), per the city's rapid-transit page. london.ca/rapidtransit ↗
  • The last big public-space bet: Dundas Place cost the city about $16M (roughly $27M all-in with utility work) and opened December 2019, with 2017 projections of over $1M a year to operate. Businesses reported sales down 25–30% during construction. No formal evaluation of what it delivered was ever published, and the current budget for programming the street isn't public either. CBC ↗

The option space

What cities try for this. Evidence for, evidence against, real costs, and who actually decides — for every option, identically. We don’t pick one. That’s the candidates’ job.

Pay to turn offices into homes

Grants per unit or per square foot that make converting empty offices into apartments financially worth a developer's while. London already runs one; Calgary runs the country's biggest.

■ CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • In Calgary, developer demand beat the money: intake was paused in 2023 because applications outran the fund, and the program counts 21 projects, 2.68 million sq ft converting, and 2,667 homes in the pipeline. City of Calgary ↗
  • The trend is national: a record seven conversion projects removed roughly 1.5 million sq ft of office space in Q1 2026 alone — including one London project. CBRE ↗
  • London's program has real uptake: about $3.8M of its $10M committed across 109 approved units, including 195 Dufferin (94 units, 40% affordable), with the first completed conversion at 376 Richmond St. city release ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The vacancy math is humbling: CBRE's own analysis found Calgary's downtown vacancy "would only be a percentage point higher if the program didn't exist" — after more than $200M of city money. CBRE's Alberta chair: "If you gauge... the success of the program today, no, it hasn't been good." CBC ↗
  • Only a minority of buildings physically work: Gensler, after scoring 1,300-plus North American buildings, found only about 25% suitable for conversion. Cost overruns are real — one Calgary heritage conversion roughly doubled in cost, and three early projects pulled out. Gensler ↗
  • London's own caveats: as of June 2025, none of the grant-funded units had opened; funded units are not required to be affordable; and downtown vacancy kept climbing after the program launched (27.3% to 31.5%). Whether the subsidy works is genuinely contested. CBC ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Calgary: up to $75/sq ft (max $15M per property); over $200M of city money invested to date per the mayor — about $67,000–$70,000 of public money per pipeline home (derived: $200M ÷ ~3,000 homes). CBC ↗
  • London: $35,000 per unit base (raised from $28,000 in July 2024), stackable to about $50,000 with a separate ~$45,000-per-affordable-unit incentive; the $10M pot is carved out of London's $74M federal Housing Accelerator money. city release ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

London's current pot: $10M ÷ $35,000 per unit ≈ 285 units — the city's stated target. A Calgary-style program on all ~1.3 million vacant sq ft at $75/sq ft ≈ $97.5M; applying Gensler's 25%-convertible finding, ~325,000 sq ft × $75 ≈ $24.4M, yielding roughly 325 homes at Calgary's observed ~1,000 sq ft of office per home. Caveat: the vacant-square-footage figure dates from Q3 2024; nothing newer is published. city release ↗

■ CITY DECIDESCouncil designs and votes the incentive through its Community Improvement Plan; the current $10M is federal money, but going beyond it means property-tax dollars or new senior-government funds.

Foot patrols, cameras, and clean teams

Four different tools with very different evidence behind them: dedicated police foot patrols (London has a 22-member downtown unit), police-plus-health co-response teams (COAST), surveillance cameras (17 downtown as of 2018), and BIA clean-team or ambassador programs.

■ CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • The best foot-patrol evidence is real: the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment (a randomized trial across 120 violent-crime hotspots) found a 23% relative reduction in reported violent crime while officers were out walking. DOJ CrimeSolutions ↗
  • Co-response teams clearly divert calls: COAST handles 100–150 client calls a month that would otherwise need a patrol response, per Carleton University's early evaluation; Toronto's crisis service resolved 78% of 911-sourced calls with no police involvement in its first six months. CBC ↗
  • CCTV works in the right settings: a 40-year systematic review of 80 evaluations found a ~13% overall crime reduction — strongest in parking lots and property crime, and only for actively monitored systems. systematic review ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • Foot-patrol effects fade: the same registry records no significant difference once officers withdrew, with deterrence decaying during deployment and crime measurably pushed to nearby blocks. London's own unit supervisor conceded displacement "could very well happen." DOJ CrimeSolutions ↗
  • For co-response, the systematic-review literature (26 studies) finds a "lack of evidence to evaluate effectiveness" beyond call diversion — no rigorous evidence that it reduces downtown reported crime or how safe people say they feel. academic review ↗
  • CCTV's effects on violent street crime are weak, passive systems show no significant effect, and no verified evidence was found that cameras make people feel safer. Clean-team and ambassador claims are almost entirely self-reported — no rigorous Canadian evaluation exists. systematic review ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Winnipeg's downtown ambassador partnership took a $5M initial provincial investment plus $3.6M more in 2022 — a serious 24/7 operation in a mid-size downtown runs millions a year, not hundreds of thousands. CBC ↗
  • London's own anchors: 17 cameras cost about $70,000 a year to run as of 2018 (~$4,000 per camera, derived); no line-item cost for the 22-member foot patrol unit or COAST's total budget has ever been published. Nearby: the Old East Village BIA spends about $60,000 a year on graffiti cleanup — a third of its whole budget. Global News ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

Salary floor only: an LPS first-class constable makes $120,445 base, so ten additional dedicated core officers ≈ 10 × $120,445 ≈ $1.2M a year minimum — before benefits, supervision and equipment, which have no citable figure. The harder limit: under Ontario's policing law, council sets only the total police budget and cannot direct deployment; the board and chief decide where officers go. LPS salary grid ↗

■ CITY DECIDESCouncil votes the global police budget, CCTV, and BIA top-ups — but it legally cannot direct police deployment, so "more foot patrols" is a promise council can fund, not order.

Tax or fill the empty buildings

Tools aimed at the empty buildings themselves: a residential vacant-home tax (now legal for London to adopt), a storefront vacancy tax (not legal without provincial change), the existing vacant-building registry, and pop-up programs in empty storefronts.

□ SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Since March 27, 2024, Ontario lets every single- and upper-tier municipality adopt a vacant-home tax — it is now purely a council choice, and Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, Windsor and Sault Ste. Marie already run programs. Ontario ↗
  • London has history with the reverse incentive: until 2019 the city actually paid commercial landlords a 30% tax rebate on vacant space (about $1.8M a year), and council phased it out over the downtown business association's objection. CBC ↗
  • The registry lever already exists: By-law A-35 puts risky buildings vacant 30-plus days on an inspection registry with owner-paid fees and fines — and the fire department's monthly list ran to 100-plus vacant buildings citywide in 2020. city bylaw ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The tool most candidates reach for is one council doesn't have: a storefront vacancy tax has no legal basis in Ontario law. Toronto's own study concluded it would need a change in provincial law, and London councillors have said the same on the record. CBC ↗
  • A residential vacant-home tax taxes empty homes — it does not touch empty offices or storefronts, which are downtown's actual problem. And pop-up programs need landlords to say yes: one owner held 59% of vacant downtown properties in 2023, and the international model (Renew Newcastle) is self-reported advocacy with no independent evaluation. CBC ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Toronto's residential vacant-home tax raises revenue and puts modest pressure on owners to rent or sell; the commercial version is untested in Ontario because it isn't legal. London's nearest costed storefront tool is the fit-out grant at roughly $975,000 a year. CBC ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

Not derivable — vacant-home-tax revenue depends on the rate and uptake council would set, no current registry count is published, and a bigger pop-up program has no published unit costs. What is certain: the only storefront tools council holds today are the registry, fines, fit-out grants, and the expired-rebate history. A storefront vacancy tax requires Queen's Park first.

□ SHARED — CITY + PROVINCEA residential vacant-home tax is council's alone to adopt since March 2024; a storefront vacancy tax requires provincial legislation — a candidate promising one is really promising a lobbying campaign.

More events and street life

Filling the core with markets, music, festivals and street events to drive foot traffic and change perception. Dundas Place was built as the stage; the BIA reports 800-plus events a year drawing about 2 million visitors (BIA-sourced figures).

■ CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Events are the core's strongest existing asset on the available data: 800-plus events a year and roughly 2 million visitors (BIA-reported), with a daytime population around 43,000. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
  • The city already runs weekly summer programming on Dundas Place (salsa, jazz, art walks), and the downtown plan's Big Move 4 doubles down through the UNESCO City of Music designation. city release ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • This is the weakest evidence base of all six options: no attendance figures for any Dundas Place event are published, and no evaluation links London's event spending to fuller storefronts or safety outcomes — the claims are mostly organizers reporting their own vibrancy. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
  • Events don't touch the structural problem, which is empty offices; the plan itself pairs events with conversion and housing for that reason. And the cautionary tale is local: Dundas Place businesses reported sales down 25–30% during construction, and six years after opening the core still needed a rescue plan. CBC ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Hamilton's downtown placemaking grant pays $500–$5,000 per one-day event and up to $15,000 per series — a rare published price list. London's only public figures are the 2017 Dundas Place projections: over $1M a year all-in ($850,000 operations, $200,000 security). City of Hamilton ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

A Hamilton-style micro-grant stream funding 50 events a year at the $5,000 cap ≈ $250,000 a year (derived from Hamilton's posted rates). A full events strategy's cost is not derivable — the essential missing number is London's own current spend, which no candidate or voter can currently look up. City of Hamilton ↗

■ CITY DECIDESCouncil votes city programming budgets and Dundas Place operations directly; the BIA levy and sponsors carry the rest.

Bring in a big institution

Using a university or college campus, civic building, or health facility to guarantee daily foot traffic that has to show up — the strategy behind Fanshawe's three downtown buildings.

■ CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Brantford is the strongest documented Canadian downtown turnaround built on an anchor: from 39 Wilfrid Laurier students in 1999 to about 2,700 by 2012 across 20-plus downtown buildings, with the city's opening move costing just $1.4M. Globe and Mail ↗
  • London's own precedent delivered bodies: 130 Dundas opened in 2018 with 1,600 students after the city committed $9M over 10 years — a vote that failed 7–7 before passing 8–7. Global News ↗
  • Anchors create daily foot traffic that events can't: Hamilton's $84.6M McMaster downtown health campus (city share $20M) puts roughly 4,000 students a year through the core. CBC ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • It takes a decade-plus to reach critical mass, with heritage-demolition and displacement fights along the way — Brantford levelled a historic block, and Kitchener's $65.1M downtown city hall sent displaced tenants to the OMB. Globe and Mail ↗
  • London has already played this card twice, with Fanshawe and the arena/market cluster: over $100M of city money into the core across two decades, per a sitting councillor, and vacancy still hit records. An anchor strategy now means naming a new tenant of scale — none is proposed in any public document. CBC ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • The verified range of city contributions in comparable moves: $1.4M (Brantford's library renovation) to $29M (London's 2011 Fanshawe grant), with Hamilton's $20M McMaster share between. London's one verified per-seat number: $9M ÷ 1,600 students = $5,625 of city money per student seat at 130 Dundas. Globe and Mail ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

Not derivable — the cost depends entirely on which anchor, and no public document currently names one. The verified comparables run $1.4M to $29M in city money. The honest question is not "do anchors work" but "which institution, what ceiling, and what happens if no anchor says yes."

■ CITY DECIDESCouncil votes the capital grants (lawful only through the Community Improvement Plan or economic-development powers), but the institution itself, and usually the province, decides whether to come.

Aim for more people living downtown

Making downtown population, not office occupancy, the explicit goal — on the theory that residents keep the core busy 18 hours a day in a way offices no longer do. Downtown Reimagined floats 5,000 new units and 20,000 residents.

■ CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES▾
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Downtown population is already the core's best-performing number: up 29% in five years versus 18% citywide, reaching 11,700-plus residents. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
  • The existing tools all push the same direction (conversion grants, 100% development-charge rebates, federal Housing Accelerator money), and every office floor converted also subtracts vacant square footage. city incentives page ↗
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • Permitted is not built, and built is not occupied: none of the conversion-grant units had opened as of June 2025, and the funded units carry no affordability requirement. CBC ↗
  • The plan's numbers are targets to set targets, with no dates and no interim milestones — and the housing push leans on the same contested subsidy math as the conversion option. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • The plan's whole $48M is the ceiling of what's currently on the table — and it is unallocated, waiting on the 2028 budget cycle. Per-unit subsidy at current rates: $35,000 city grant plus a 10-year 100% development-charge rebate whose value varies per unit. SPPC staff report (PDF) ↗
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

The pace arithmetic voters should see: 1,500-plus units permitted over 2021–2025 ≈ 375 a year. At that pace, 5,000 units takes about 13 years — longer than the plan's 10-year horizon. Reaching 20,000 residents means adding roughly 8,300 people; at the downtown average of 1.7 persons per household, that's about 4,900 occupied units, consistent with the 5,000-unit target. All inputs from the plan; the division is ours. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗

■ CITY DECIDESCouncil sets the targets, the CIP money, and the zoning; the private market decides whether the units actually get built.

Where this file meets the Homelessness File

  • The loop, stated neutrally: the plan's engagement found visible drug use and fear of crime keep people from spending time downtown, which directly affects leasing decisions and foot traffic — while official reported crime is falling. Perception of disorder chokes off the foot traffic every option above is trying to create, which is why candidates will be tempted to promise downtown revival through homelessness policy. The two files connect; they are not the same file. The full picture is at /files/homelessness/. Downtown Reimagined plan (PDF) ↗
  • The fight over where services go runs through both files: on November 5, 2024, council voted 9–6 that resting spaces for people experiencing homelessness not be located on the main street of any of London's five BIAs — understood to target Ark Aid's 696 Dundas space in Old East Village. CBC ↗
  • Business associations are meanwhile buying safety themselves: London BIAs have hired private security and say they can't keep absorbing the cost. Argyle used $125,000 in two-year city funding for a safety director, and Old East Village runs its own safety grants. CBC ↗
  • One attribution caution: the BIA voice in the resting-space coverage is the Old East Village BIA, not Downtown London — no direct on-record Downtown London BIA statement on the November 2024 motion was found. Its strategic plan names "safety and social challenges" as top member concerns while noting the BIA controls none of policing, housing, or health policy. Downtown London BIA plan (PDF) ↗

What a costed answer looks like

Any candidate can say this issue matters. These questions ask for numbers and mechanisms — every candidate gets them, equally.

  1. Downtown Reimagined lists 58 actions costing $48M, and none of it is funded yet. Which action would you fund first, with how many dollars, and what tax increase, cut, or reserve draw pays for it?
  2. London pays $35,000 a unit to convert empty offices into homes; Calgary spent over $200M and barely moved its vacancy rate. What downtown vacancy or population target will you hit, by what year, at what public cost per unit?
  3. Council sets only the total police budget and legally cannot direct deployment. How many dedicated downtown officers do you want, at roughly $120,000 base salary each, and how exactly do you get the police board to deliver them?
  4. London can adopt a residential vacant-home tax today, but taxing empty storefronts requires a provincial law change first. Which would you pursue, at what rate, and if it's storefronts, how do you get the law changed?
  5. Dundas Place was projected to cost over $1M a year to run, and no current programming budget is published. What would you spend each year on events in the core, and what one public measure proves it's working?
  6. City money helped land Fanshawe downtown at about $5,600 per student seat. Which institution would you pay to bring downtown next, what is your ceiling, and what happens if no anchor says yes?
  7. The downtown plan calls for 5,000 new homes, and the current pace is about 375 units a year. Do you adopt that target with a date attached, and what specifically moves the pace past 500?
  8. Council voted 9–6 to keep homelessness services off BIA main streets. Would you keep, extend, or repeal that ban, and if services can't go on main streets, name the locations where they should.

What your ward is wrestling with

This file lands differently on every street.Jump straight to your ward’s own issue list:

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CLAIMS WE COULDN’T VERIFY — SO THEY’RE NOT ON THIS PAGE ▾

These circulate in coverage of this issue but could not be traced to a source that loads and says what’s claimed. We’d rather show you the gap than publish the number.

  • Crime Severity Index "64.3 (2023) → 56.2 (2024)" and "largest drop in Ontario" — commercial-blog-only, partly contradicted by Statistics Canada; replaced site-wide with the official 61.2 / down 6% figures.
  • Annual cost of the LPS 22-member downtown foot patrol unit — no published figure; only base-salary arithmetic is possible.
  • A "fully loaded" per-officer cost (~$130,000–$150,000) — estimate only; the verified base salary is $120,445–$131,285.
  • Downtown-specific reported-crime statistics — no public core-level dataset exists from LPS or StatCan.
  • Current downtown CCTV camera count and cost after the 2024 expansion — the 17-camera/$70,000 figures are 2018-vintage.
  • Downtown London BIA clean-team dollar spend — the BIA publishes a levy chart without numbers.
  • The actual current annual city spend animating Dundas Place, and attendance for any Dundas Place event — only 2017 projections are public.
  • Covent Garden Market operating deficit or bailout figure — none published; only a $5.7M capital repair is verified.
  • Core Area Action Plan "~$22M" total — the best-sourced figure is $18.9M, and no formal outcome evaluation of the plan exists.
  • "$10M city grant per Fanshawe campus" — wrong as framed; verified: $9M over 10 years for 130 Dundas, plus a $29M 2011 grant resting on a single source.
  • Fanshawe student counts at 137 Dundas and 431 Richmond — never published, so no per-seat cost beyond 130 Dundas.
  • The 685 Richmond St conversion grant amount — the unit count (41) is verified; the dollar figure was never published.
  • Brantford "$130M institutional investment including $21M city" — appears only in unverifiable search snippets.
  • Current count of buildings on the A-35 vacant-building registry and its fee schedule — the bylaw is verified; counts and fees are not published.