HOW TO VOTE
THE HARD FILES · AN OPTIONS BRIEF, NOT A PLAN

The Safety & Policing File

Total crime down 18.5% since 2019 · violent crime still ~19% above 2019 · a $672M police budget council can only vote as one number · what every safety promise actually costs

This page is a menu of options, not a plan. It walks through what cities actually try on safety: more officers, crisis teams, prevention, cameras, two rival drug responses, enforcement, and the police board itself. For each one it gives the strongest evidence for it, the strongest evidence against it, what it cost where it was tried, and the London-scale math, shown in full or honestly marked as not derivable. It recommends nothing. This is the most politically charged file on the site, so the evidence-both-ways rule runs at its strictest here: a reader from either side of the police debate, or the drug-policy debate, should find their own side's best evidence fairly stated, right next to its weaknesses.

One legal fact shapes everything on this page: council does not run the police. Under provincial law, council sets only the police budget's bottom-line total. It cannot approve or reject line items, it cannot direct where officers go, and the mayor's strong-mayor powers do not reach the police budget. The drug file has the same shape: treatment beds are provincial money, and a supervised consumption site needs a federal exemption the province now gates. Many safety promises are promises about someone else's powers. This page flags them.

Two rulers for every promise here, carried from the Taxes File: one percentage point of tax increase is roughly $9 million a year in city revenue, or about $38 a year on the average home. And one first-class constable's base salary is $120,445. Research was completed July 5, 2026, and every claim links to a source. The eight questions at the bottom go to every candidate in the race, equally, through the site's questionnaire, and their verbatim answers will appear here as they come in.

The honest numbers

Where London actually stands — every figure linked to its source.

The two crime lines

  • The Crime Severity Index (CSI) is Statistics Canada's measure of police-reported crime, weighted so serious crimes count for more. London's total CSI fell from 75.1 in 2019 to 61.2 in 2024, down 18.5%, and has fallen every year since 2021. It sits well below the 2024 national index of 77.9. StatCan table 35-10-0026-01 
  • The split underneath tells two stories at once. The violent-crime index spiked to 92.2 in 2021, has fallen every year since, and at 76.2 in 2024 is still about 19% above its 2019 level of 64.1. The non-violent index, at 55.8, is 29% below 2019. A candidate saying "crime is falling" and a candidate saying "violent crime is worse than before the pandemic" are both quoting this table correctly. Both lines are shown below, because both camps will quote their half. StatCan table 35-10-0026-01 
  • The police service's own numbers point the same general direction: total Criminal Code cases fell to 26,420 in 2024, down 2.3%, and clearance rates (the share of cases solved) improved, with violent-crime clearance at 64.4%. These are the service's self-reported figures, and no 2025 annual report exists yet. LPS 2024 Annual Report 
  • There is no public neighbourhood-level crime data for London. The police crime map covers only the last 90 days, deliberately blurs locations, and carries the service's own disclaimer that it "does not represent our official crime statistics." Any candidate claim about a specific neighbourhood's crime rate has no official public source. LPS crime map page 
VIOLENT VS NON-VIOLENT CRIME SEVERITY — TO SCALE
Violent 201964.1
Violent 202476.2 (+19% vs 2019)
Non-viol. 201978.9
Non-viol. 202455.8 (−29% vs 2019)

Same StatCan table, two directions. Total CSI (61.2 in 2024) is down 18.5% from 2019; the violent index is still above 2019 while the non-violent index is well below it. A candidate quoting only one line is telling half the story. StatCan table 35-10-0026-01 

The police budget in context

  • The commitment: a $672-million police budget for 2024 through 2027, the largest single driver of 2024's 8.7% tax increase, roughly 5 of the 8.7 points, and about 2 points of 2025's 7.3%. Global News 
  • What's in it: 189 new positions including 97 officers, $2.6 million for body-worn cameras plus $1.6 million a year to operate them, in-car cameras, Tasers for every officer, a second armoured vehicle, a public-order drone, and a $42-million share of a new training facility. CBC 
  • That training facility is now the London Emergency Services Campus: council endorsed 3243 Manning Drive as the site in July 2025, a joint police, fire, and city project, with the first phase running 2025 to 2027. city release 
  • Year by year, the net tax-levy police figures run $147.0M (2024), $150.5M (2025), $151.7M (2026), $156.4M (2027). budget amendment (eSCRIBE PDF) 
  • After efficiency discussions with the mayor and budget chair, the board announced a one-time $1.5-million reduction to its 2026 operating budget in September 2025. London Police Service Board 
  • Personnel are 97.09% of the police operating budget (2023 figures, the latest the service publishes). Police budgets move almost entirely with headcount and wages, and police wages are settled by binding provincial arbitration because officers cannot strike. LPS operating budget page 
  • London spends below the big-city average on policing per person: $316 net per capita against a $354 average and $363 median for Ontario municipalities over 100,000 (Ottawa $305, Windsor $372, Toronto $429). Per $100,000 of assessment, London is mid-pack. Both facts sit alongside the growth above; any candidate quoting only one is telling half the story. BMA Municipal Study 2025 (PDF) 
  • The hiring surge is real and so is the gap. StatCan counts 594 actual officers in May 2023 and 698 in May 2025, with authorized strength up from 660 to 737. Per 100,000 residents that is 125.7 to 142.8, still about 20% below the Ontario rate of 177.7. StatCan Police Administration Survey 
  • One correction to a figure in circulation: 69 officers were hired in 2024, but only 35 were growth positions. The rest replaced departures. LPS 2024 Annual Report 
POLICE OFFICERS PER 100,000 RESIDENTS — TO SCALE
London 2023125.7
London 2025142.8
Ontario 2025177.7
Canada 2025180.3

The hiring surge is real: 594 actual officers in May 2023 to 698 in May 2025 (authorized strength 660 to 737). London still sits about 20% below the Ontario rate. StatCan Police Administration Survey 

NET POLICE COST PER PERSON, ONTARIO CITIES OVER 100,000 — TO SCALE
Ottawa$305
London$316
Waterloo Reg.$340
Windsor$372
Toronto$429

Net cost per capita excluding amortization; the group average is $354 and the median $363. London spends below the big-city average per person on police, even after the 2024 increase. BMA Municipal Study 2025 (PDF) 

Response times: the claim and the numbers

  • "Among the worst response times in the province" comes from the police service itself, in its own 2024 budget documents, as reported by CBC. There is no independent province-wide response-time comparison; Ontario publishes none. Treat the claim as the service's case for its own budget, not an audited ranking. CBC 
  • The 2023 numbers behind the headlines: emergency (Priority 1) calls averaged 10 minutes; Priority 2 calls averaged 9 hours 45 minutes; non-urgent Priority 3 calls averaged 132 hours. The service hired 19 special constables in October 2024 to triage non-emergency calls. CBC 
  • The 2024 annual report says response times fell across all three priority levels for the first time since 2020: Priority 1 at 9 minutes 36 seconds (down 4.3%), Priority 3 down 38.3%. One measurement trap: the 2023 figures were reported as averages and the 2024 figures as 90th percentile, so "132 hours down to 82" mixes bases; the percentage declines are the service's own like-for-like comparison. Calls for service ran 89,776 in 2024, with average officer time per call up to 3 hours 21 minutes from 2 hours 46 minutes in 2020. LPS 2024 Annual Report 
  • What faster response buys is genuinely split in the research. The classic Kansas City study found response time unrelated to the chance of an arrest or finding a witness, because most crime is discovered after the fact. US DOJ archive 
  • The modern counterpoint: a UK study of Greater Manchester found a 10% increase in response time cut the odds of solving the crime by 4.6 percentage points. Honest synthesis: marginal minutes matter on in-progress calls, much less for the large after-the-fact share. LSE working paper (PDF) 

What council can and cannot do

  • Council sets only the bottom-line total of the police budget. Under the provincial Community Safety and Policing Act, the police board prepares the estimates; council "is not bound to adopt the estimates" but "does not have the authority to approve or disapprove specific items." There is no line-by-line power, in either direction. Ontario — CSPA, 2019 
  • Neither council nor the board can direct deployment. Operational decisions belong to the chief of police; the law bars even the board from directing the chief on operations. A candidate promising "more foot patrols downtown" or "officers moved from traffic to neighbourhoods" is promising something no elected official can order. Open Council 
  • Strong-mayor powers do not reach the police budget. In a January 12, 2026 letter to heads of council, two provincial ministers confirmed those powers do not include limiting board budget increases, vetoing board estimates, or touching line items. CBC 
  • If council votes a total the board says is too low, the board can take the dispute to a provincial commission. Short of that, pushback can work: Peterborough's council pushed back in 2025 and the board came back at 7.8% instead of 8.8%, with the chief now presenting bronze, silver, and gold budget options, bronze being the legal minimum. Open Council 
  • The one adjudicated Ontario precedent favoured the board: Guelph, 1999, where the commission ordered council to pay $187,750 of the board's $252,000 ask. So the inoculation runs both ways: a candidate promising to cut the police budget line by line is promising a power council does not have, and a candidate implying the police budget is untouchable is also wrong. Canadian Dimension 
  • The board has seven members: three council seats (currently Mayor Josh Morgan and Couns. Susan Stevenson and Steve Lehman), one council-appointed community member, and three provincial appointees. Voters electing a council in October are indirectly electing four of the board's seven seats. CBC 

The drug crisis in numbers

  • The Middlesex-London health unit's 2025 update: the 2024 opioid death rate was 12.1 per 100,000 (more than 70 deaths), the third consecutive yearly decline and 51% below the 2021 peak. Emergency-department visits fell the same way: 491 in 2024, down more than 55% from the peak. London itself averaged 89 opioid deaths a year from 2018 to 2024. The health unit attributes the decline to "many factors," including services, awareness, and changes to the toxic drug supply itself. MLHU Opioid Crisis Update 2025 (PDF) 
  • Ontario-wide, for the attribution fights ahead: 2,231 opioid deaths in 2024, down 15% from 2023; the peak was 2,880 in 2021. Fentanyl appeared in more than 83% of deaths, and one in five of Ontario's opioid deaths was a homeless person. CBC 
  • Nobody gets to claim the decline. London's Medical Officer of Health said in late 2024 it "wasn't entirely clear" why local numbers fell faster than the province's. The decline began while London's supervised consumption site operated, and continued provincially where sites closed. The trend line, by itself, adjudicates neither side's causal story. CBC 
  • London's supervised consumption service is gone. A supervised consumption site (SCS) is a health service where people use pre-obtained drugs under observation, with staff who reverse overdoses. The province sent 90-day notices in March 2026 ending funding for Carepoint and six other previously exempted sites. CBC 
  • Carepoint closed as a consumption service June 13, 2026. The 446 York St. building stays open under the operator's Counterpoint program: needle and syringe distribution, supplies, HIV testing, referrals. No supervised consumption service now operates in London, and no post-closure street-impact data existed yet when this file was researched. CBC 
  • The treatment side has a new anchor: London's HART hub (Homelessness and Addiction Recovery Treatment, the province's recovery-focused model) opened in late October 2025 at the Salvation Army Centre of Hope, led by CMHA Thames Valley, with $6.3 million a year for three years. Its first 33 beds filled immediately. CBC 
  • The hub's full plan builds to 60 beds, by converting existing recovery beds, plus 60 supportive-housing units in its first year. CBC 
  • Nobody publishes London treatment or detox wait times. The city's own community-safety plan update lists a "decrease in wait times for assessment and admission to publicly funded substance use treatment services" as a goal: an official acknowledgment that waits are a problem, without a published baseline. CSWB 2026 Update (eSCRIBE PDF) 

What London already runs

  • COAST pairs a police officer with a health worker, a model called co-response, seven days a week. It handles 100 to 150 client calls a month that would otherwise need a patrol response, per Carleton University's early evaluation, which was positive on diversion but found no evidence of broader impact. Its total budget has never been published. CBC 
  • London Cares runs two dedicated 24/7 street-outreach teams, out of five in the system, doing crisis de-escalation, naloxone, and referrals. The wider homelessness response runs about $46 million a year, $16 million of it municipal, and the expiry of two federal programs means winding down one of the five outreach teams. CBC 
  • Project Pathways is the police open-air drug strategy: 27 constables and 3 supervisors, seven days a week, since April 2025. Through February 2026: 5,011 calls for service, 1,851 seizures, 75 charges, and 1,406 referrals to services, of which 18% were accepted. Those ratios appear again in the enforcement option below; both sides will quote them. CBC 
  • A 22-member community foot patrol unit has walked downtown and Old East Village since March 2023; its annual cost is unpublished. The strongest foot-patrol evidence, a Philadelphia randomized trial across 120 violent-crime hotspots, found a 23% relative drop in reported violent crime while officers were out walking. DOJ CrimeSolutions 
  • The downtown camera program dates to 2001. It ran 17 cameras at about $70,000 a year as of 2018; the post-expansion count and cost are unpublished. Global News 
  • The 2024 camera expansion drew a $255,000 provincial grant share, part of a $2-million province-wide CCTV grant round. MPP release 
  • Every Ontario municipality must keep a Community Safety and Well-Being (CSWB) plan; it is the statutory home for any prevention strategy. London's 2026 update, in the council pipeline at research time, names five priorities: mental health, housing, substance use, crime, and gender-based violence. A candidate's "prevention strategy" either uses this plan or ignores it. That is a checkable difference. CSWB 2026 Update (eSCRIBE PDF) 
  • The live flashpoint: the health unit distributed 602,983 needles and 224,079 pipes in 2025 through harm-reduction supply programs. A March 2026 council motion sought to bar city-funded agencies from distributing drug-use supplies downtown; the agencies and health unit noted the funding is provincial and federal, not municipal, so a council motion mostly cannot reach it. The Medical Officer of Health opposed the motion. CBC 

The option space

What cities try for this. Evidence for, evidence against, real costs, and who actually decides — for every option, identically. We don’t pick one. That’s the candidates’ job.

More sworn officers

Raise the force's authorized strength beyond the 97 growth officers already funded through 2027; or, from the other side, decline to renew that trajectory in the next multi-year budget. London had 698 actual officers in May 2025 against 737 authorized.

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • The best-identified American evidence finds more police reduce serious crime: a measurement-error-corrected study puts the effect at roughly a 5% drop in cost-weighted crime for a 10% force increase, concentrated in violent crime. NBER working paper 
  • A 2022 study across US cities: each additional officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides, about one homicide prevented per ten officers added, with per-capita effects twice as large for Black victims; larger forces also made fewer arrests for serious crimes. AER: Insights 
  • A US federal hiring-grant study found each added officer prevented about 4 violent and 15 property crimes, and put the social value of a marginal officer above $300,000. Journal of Public Economics 
  • How officers are used matters as much as how many: hot-spots policing (concentrating patrols on the small map areas where crime clusters) is rated Effective by the US National Institute of Justice's evidence registry, with modest average effects. NIJ CrimeSolutions 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The same 2022 study cuts the other way in the same abstract: larger forces make more arrests for low-level "quality-of-life" offences, "with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans." Quote the two halves together or not at all. AER: Insights 
  • The Canadian record does not show the American relationship. Public Safety Canada's own research synthesis: police resources returned to early-1990s levels while crime fell 46% since 1991, and across provinces and cities police levels and crime rates "can often be positively correlated." London's own tables fit the ambiguity: total crime severity fell from 2022 to 2024 while officers were being added, and the violent index began falling in 2022, before the hires ramped. Public Safety Canada (PDF) 
  • Approved positions are not filled positions. Ontario faces a province-wide police recruiting shortage: services launched a joint recruiting campaign in July 2025 amid staffing shortfalls, and the province expanded police-college intake. There is no published tracker of London's progress toward the 97 growth positions. CBC 
  • The response-time case is genuinely split: the classic Kansas City finding is that response time doesn't affect arrests for the large share of crimes discovered after the fact, while the modern UK evidence says faster response improves clearance of in-progress calls. A candidate selling officers on response times owes voters which call types they mean. LSE working paper (PDF) 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • The unit price at home: an LPS first-class constable's base salary is $120,445 to $131,285 on the July 2025 grid, before benefits, equipment, and supervision. A fully loaded average across the whole service works out to roughly $151,000 per employee, an average across all ranks and civilians, not a hiring quote. LPS salary grid 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

Ten additional officers cost about $1.2 million a year in base salary alone. Closing the gap to the Ontario-average staffing rate would take roughly 170 more officers, $20 million-plus a year in base salary, more than two points of tax levy, before civilian support, vehicles, or facilities. A candidate promising "average staffing" owes voters that number. StatCan Police Administration Survey 

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCEThe board and chief control positions and deployment; council votes only the total; the province holds the arbitration backstop. The next multi-year police budget will be set by the council and board chosen after October 26.

Co-response and civilian crisis teams

Pair health workers with police (London's COAST model), or send civilian teams instead of police (the Toronto and Denver model), for mental-health, addiction, and social-disorder calls. Co-response means a health professional attends alongside an officer; civilian dispatch replaces the police response entirely.

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Denver's randomized rollout of civilian teams cut reports of targeted low-level offences (trespass, public disorder) by 34% in served areas, at a direct cost of $151 per offence reduced versus roughly $646 for criminal-justice processing of a comparable offence. Science Advances 
  • Toronto's Community Crisis Service at scale: 29,000-plus calls from March 2022 to July 2025, and in 2024 it handled 78% of 911-transferred calls with no police involvement. It expanded citywide in September 2024, three months early. City of Toronto report (PDF) 
  • London's own COAST diverts 100 to 150 client calls a month from patrol, with over 80% client satisfaction, per Carleton University's early evaluation. CBC 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The model's 36-year flagship collapsed: CAHOOTS in Eugene, Oregon shut down in its home city in April 2025 over funding, with the city contract covering only about 40% of its cost. The economics depend on someone paying, and the payer blinked. OPB 
  • The rigorous evidence is still thin: a police-chiefs' association review calls co-responder evidence "preliminary," with few evaluations that assess impact rigorously, and no completed high-grade systematic review exists yet. IACP review (PDF) 
  • Scale is the other limit: health-related calls are about 7% of police workload in a Detroit replication study. Diverting them improves those encounters; it does not much shrink police budgets or touch violent crime. Police Practice and Research 
  • Denver's own study found no detectable effect on more serious crimes, and its authors flag that part of the 34% drop may be a reporting artifact, since health responders file fewer offence reports. Science Advances 
  • COAST's evaluation found no evidence of better treatment outcomes downstream; in the evaluators' words, it "isn't having a broader, more pervasive impact." CBC 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Toronto's service cost a verified $13.7 million in 2023 for a city of about three million; later reported figures ($31.7M in 2025) rest on weaker sourcing. City of Toronto report (PDF) 
  • Eugene's CAHOOTS self-reported about $2.1 million a year while handling 17% of police call volume, with police backup needed in under 1% of calls. Operator-reported figures, not audited ones. White Bird Clinic 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

COAST's budget is unpublished, so a London expansion cost cannot be derived from public sources; that is the first costed question for any candidate proposing one. For scale only: a Toronto-per-capita equivalent would be roughly $2 to 2.5 million a year for London's population, but Toronto's is a civilian-dispatch model, not COAST's police-paired model. The models are not interchangeable, and neither has a published London price. City of Toronto report (PDF) 

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCEShared: the partner agencies (police, hospitals, CMHA) and the police board control staffing; the province holds health funding; council holds city grants. A 911-diversion model like Toronto's would also need dispatch integration the city does not control alone.

Prevention and upstream spending

Fund programs that reduce offending before it happens: cognitive-behavioural youth programs, summer jobs, street lighting and design, violence-interrupter models. The evidence belongs to specific program models, not to "community programs" in general.

CITY DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Becoming a Man, a Chicago cognitive-behavioural program for teen boys, has two randomized trials behind it: violent-crime arrests fell 45 to 50% during the program, with estimated benefit-cost ratios from 5-to-1 to 30-to-1. Quarterly Journal of Economics 
  • Summer jobs: Chicago's program cut violent-crime arrests 43% over 16 months in a randomized trial, with most of the decline arriving after the eight-week job ended. Science 
  • Street lighting: a New York public-housing randomized trial found, at minimum, a 36% reduction in night-time outdoor serious crime; the US evidence registry rates improved lighting Promising. NBER working paper 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The same results look smaller in standardized terms: an independent re-analysis rates the youth program's arrest effects as small, large percentage drops off a low base. Both descriptions are true at once. Evidence for ESSA 
  • Scale-up at the hardest end is unproven: a randomized trial with men at extreme risk of violence in Chicago found no statistically significant change in its primary serious-violence measure. NBER working paper 
  • Violence-interrupter results are genuinely mixed across cities: mostly positive in Chicago evaluations, inconsistent across sites in Baltimore. John Jay research review 
  • The verified effects belong to specific program models measured over one-to-two-year research windows, and prevention pays off on horizons that outrun budget cycles and council terms. That is an analysis point, not a cited finding.
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

No consolidated crime-prevention budget line exists for London, so a costed prevention portfolio cannot be derived from published sources. The statutory hook does exist: the Community Safety and Well-Being Plan's 2026 update, where any prevention promise would have to live. A promise that names a program model, annual dollars, neighbourhoods, and a check-back year is checkable. "More community programs" is not. CSWB 2026 Update (eSCRIBE PDF) 

CITY DECIDESAlmost entirely council's own jurisdiction: recreation, neighbourhood services, lighting, and grants are ordinary council votes. The province holds the school and health levers; the evidence-based youth models are city-fundable. This is the one option space fully inside council's power.

Surveillance technology

Cameras and sensors: expanding the downtown CCTV program, automatic licence-plate readers (ALPR), drones, body-worn cameras, and the facial-recognition question underneath all of them. Much of this list already exists; candidates often propose what is already running.

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • The 40-year evidence on CCTV is specific: a systematic review of 80 evaluations found about a 13% overall crime reduction, strongest in parking areas and property crime, and only for actively monitored systems. Passive camera systems showed no significant effect. systematic review 
  • Plate readers are already in use with a clear operational case: London police describe cruiser-mounted scanning for stolen plates and vehicles and suspended drivers, run under a privacy impact assessment and provincial privacy-commissioner guidelines. LPS ALPR page 
  • Body-worn cameras began rolling out in January 2025, with a target of all frontline officers around the start of 2026. No completion confirmation had been published as of July 2026. LPS body-worn cameras page 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The same CCTV review found weak effects on violent street crime, the setting where London's safety debate actually lives, and no verified evidence exists that cameras improve the feeling of safety. systematic review 
  • Canada's privacy regulators, on police facial recognition, in their own words: the "current legislative context for police use of FR is insufficient," facial data "speaks to the very core of individual identity," and their guidance "should not be read as justifying, endorsing or approving the use of FR." Privacy Commissioner of Canada 
  • London has a facial-recognition history voters may hear about: in 2020 the police service initially denied, then confirmed, that officers had accessed the Clearview AI tool; a review found seven officers had used free trial accounts, one in an investigation. No facial-recognition program currently exists. CBC 
  • Nobody publishes the current downtown camera count or operating cost; the last public anchors are 2018's 17 cameras at about $70,000 a year. That is an accountability gap in itself. Global News 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • The 2024 CCTV expansion drew a $255,000 provincial grant share; the 2018 anchor works out to about $4,000 per camera per year in operating cost. MPP release 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

The current system's cost is not derivable: the post-expansion camera count and operating cost are unpublished. A doubling of the 2018-era system would plausibly run low six figures a year in operating money, but the honest label is unknown. A candidate promising "more cameras" should also say which system they mean: the city's downtown CCTV is council's money, while police technology sits inside the police budget total that council cannot line-item. Global News 

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCESplit three ways: council owns the downtown CCTV budget; the board and chief own police technology inside the budget total; federal and provincial privacy law constrains all of it.

A recovery-first drug response

Organize the drug response around treatment: detox and treatment beds, rapid access to opioid-agonist medication, recovery-oriented housing, with harm-reduction services de-emphasized or excluded. Alberta is the reference model; Ontario's HART hubs are the version London actually has. This option and the next are mirror images, held to identical rigor.

PROVINCE DECIDES
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Treatment demand demonstrably exceeds supply: London's first 33 hub beds filled immediately, and a year into the provincial rollout, reporting found demand far exceeding capacity, with many hubs only partially operational. Whatever else is true, the beds get used. Canadian Affairs 
  • Rapid access to medication has real published outcomes: Alberta's virtual opioid-dependency program took the median wait for opioid-agonist treatment from six days to zero, with 90% retention at six months among ongoing-care clients, in a chart-review study without a control group. Opioid-agonist treatment (medication such as methadone or buprenorphine that replaces street opioids) carries the strongest mortality evidence in the whole field. Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 
  • Alberta's 2024 result was real: opioid deaths fell about 37% in 2024 from the 2023 record. CBC 
  • Alberta also eliminated the former $40-a-day client fee for publicly funded live-in treatment and reports more than 10,000 added treatment spaces. The capacity claims are the province's own accounting of its model. Government of Alberta 
  • Even operators on the harm-reduction side concede the premise that consumption services without treatment capacity leave people cycling. A Hamilton hub operator's on-record verdict: "Both programs are needed." Canadian Affairs 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The 2025 data undercut the strong causal claim. National opioid deaths fell 23% in 2025, Ontario's fell 38% and British Columbia's 22% on the federal series, but Alberta's fell only 4%, with Alberta's overdose EMS responses up sharply. Deaths fell across jurisdictions with opposite drug policies, and researchers point to changes in the illegal supply itself as a major confounder. CBC 
  • Leaving treatment is the highest-risk moment. In a British study of consecutive detox patients, the overdose deaths in the following year occurred among those who successfully completed detox, having lost tolerance; none among non-completers. BMJ 
  • A meta-analysis of more than 138,000 patients found all-cause death rates roughly three times higher out of methadone treatment than in it, with risk spiking immediately after leaving. Any recovery-first design is accountable for what happens at discharge. BMJ meta-analysis 
  • The involuntary-treatment extension has weak-to-negative evidence: the systematic review of compulsory treatment found the evidence "does not, on the whole, suggest improved outcomes," with some studies suggesting potential harms. A candidate pointing at Alberta's coming involuntary layer owes voters this literature. Int. Journal of Drug Policy 
  • No outcome accountability exists yet on either front: Alberta has published no facility-level completion or relapse outcomes, and Ontario has published no intake or outcome numbers for London's hub. The hub design also bans consumption services and needle exchange on site, and, per reporting, drug checking. London's March 2026 mass-overdose event (roughly 39 to 40 calls in 24 hours) was identified through the now-closed consumption site's drug-checking capability. Pairing those two facts is this page's analysis, not a cited finding. CBC 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Alberta's Lethbridge recovery community: $19 million capital for 50 beds ($380,000 a bed) and $3.4 million a year operating, about $68,000 per bed per year. Global News 
  • London's hub: $6.3 million a year across roughly 59 funded beds works out near $107,000 per bed per year, overstated as a bed cost because the money also buys wraparound services. CBC 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

The size of London's treatment shortfall cannot be stated, because neither local bed counts nor wait times are published; that absence is itself the first question for candidates. Scale anchor: 100 treatment beds at the Alberta operating rate is about $6.8 million a year plus roughly $38 million capital, and none of it is council money. Health care is provincial. Council can vote land, zoning, siting support, and advocacy; a recovery-first council candidate is mostly promising to ask the province, and the costed question is what they do while waiting. Global News 

PROVINCE DECIDESThe province, overwhelmingly: treatment beds, hub funding, and withdrawal management are Ministry of Health money, and Ottawa sets the federal funding streams. Council's levers are siting, land, small grants, and advocacy.

A harm-reduction drug response

Organize the drug response around keeping people alive and connected while they use: supervised consumption, naloxone distribution, needle and syringe programs, drug checking, and, at the contested outer edge, prescribed safer supply, with treatment offered but not required. Since June 13, 2026, no supervised consumption service operates in London. This option and the previous one are mirror images, held to identical rigor.

SHARED — CITY + FEDS
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • The strongest specific outcome in the whole drug section: across Canada's federally exempted consumption sites, zero fatal overdoses have ever occurred on-site, against 41,538 overdoses managed by staff. Even the critique literature does not dispute on-site reversals. Health Canada surveillance 
  • Near-site mortality studies point the same way: fatal overdoses within 500 metres of Vancouver's Insite fell 35% after it opened, versus 9% citywide. The Lancet 
  • Toronto neighbourhoods with sites saw overdose mortality fall from 8.10 to 2.70 per 100,000 after 2017, with no decline elsewhere, in an ecological study design that cannot prove causation. The Lancet Public Health 
  • The uncontested baseline layer: take-home naloxone reduces overdose deaths among participants and communities, and needle and syringe programs cut HIV transmission by roughly a third to a half, per systematic reviews. A US systematic review of consumption sites found they may reduce overdose deaths and improve access to care "while not increasing crime or public nuisance." Addiction (systematic review) 
  • London's own safer-supply program, Canada's first, has a peer-reviewed cohort study: after entry, clients' emergency visits fell (rate ratio 0.69), hospital admissions fell (0.46), and health-care costs dropped from $15,635 to $7,310 per person-year, with no change in the comparison group. The authors call it preliminary evidence. CMAJ cohort study 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • Said straight: the population-level mortality evidence is weaker than advocates imply. A 2025 federal systematic review of Canadian studies found province-wide analyses generally showed no significant association between consumption sites and population-level overdose deaths; smaller-area protection appeared in some studies but not consistently. The strong claim is lives saved on-site and near-site, not city-wide death curves. PHAC systematic review 
  • Coverage is one reason: in British Columbia's 2025 data, 48% of deaths were in private residences and 20% outdoors, places sites do not reach. BC Coroners Service release 
  • The disorder critique has real data behind it, and the block-level literature is genuinely mixed: the best recent study, on Toronto police data, found break-and-enters within 400 metres jumped 49.9% when sites were implemented and then declined on trend, alongside declining robberies and vehicle thefts. Read it beside the US review's no-increase finding; both are in print. interrupted time-series study 
  • Ontario's own commissioned review of a Toronto site is more nuanced than either camp quotes it: it found the site "suitable to maintain funding" while documenting real operational failures, including untrained security and weak community responsiveness. The province proceeded with closures anyway. Both halves belong in print. Ontario ministry review (PDF) 
  • Safer-supply diversion is a live, documented dispute with a London face on each side: a London physician's on-record clinical observations describe a collapsed street price for hydromorphone and harms concentrated in Old East Village, while the peer-reviewed London cohort study measures different outcomes (health use and costs). Both can be true at once; a candidate quoting one owes voters the other. Canadian Affairs 
  • The federal funding stream for prescribed alternatives ended in March 2025, and Health Canada says it has no plans to resume it. The operational status of London's safer-supply program as of July 2026 could not be confirmed. CBC 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • Ontario's best public per-site anchor: $1.35 million a year for Peterborough's consumption and treatment site. The province's own comparison is that HART hubs get up to four times more funding than sites did. Global News 
  • The bare-bones precedent: Toronto's Kensington Market overdose-prevention site runs donor-funded on about $30,000 a month, roughly $360,000 a year, with no provincial money. CBC 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

The money is small: a bare-bones overdose-prevention site would run on the order of $0.4 to 1.4 million a year, a rounding error against the $151.7-million police net budget. The law is the constraint. Under Ontario's 2024 Act: no site within 200 metres of schools or child care; municipalities cannot apply for federal drug-decriminalization exemptions; and without the provincial minister's approval, a municipality cannot apply for or renew a federal consumption-site exemption, or even support anyone else's application by by-law or resolution. What the Act might still leave a council free to fund is a legal question this page does not answer (see the appendix below). A Charter challenge is pending with no final ruling as of research; the injunction in that case never obliged funding, which is what actually closed Carepoint. Community Care and Recovery Act, 2024 

SHARED — CITY + FEDSOttawa grants consumption-site exemptions and sets federal funding; the province gates municipal action under its 2024 Act and controls health funding; council can plainly fund outreach and advocacy. If the pending court ruling lands before October 26, this box may need rewriting.

Enforcement-led public order

Use police enforcement, provincial offences, and by-law tools against open drug use, encampments, and street disorder: the restore-order-first option. The legal architecture matters more here than anywhere, because the sharpest tools belong to other governments.

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Disorder policing can reduce crime, done a specific way: a 30-test meta-analysis, rated Effective by the US evidence registry, found modest but significant overall effects, including on violent and drug offences. NIJ CrimeSolutions 
  • The province has built the tool candidates will invoke: the Safer Municipalities Act, 2025 creates a provincial offence for public consumption of illegal substances, with powers to direct a person to stop or leave. Legislative Assembly of Ontario 
  • Local appetite is on the record: London's mayor applauded the planned provincial crackdown legislation and urged Londoners to "be very open to this," though he did not join the 13 mayors who urged use of the notwithstanding clause; three London councillors opposed invoking it. CBC 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The same meta-analysis, same page: community- and problem-oriented approaches "are more effective for reducing crime than order-maintenance approaches that rely primarily on aggressive enforcement of minor offenses," which on their own show no significant crime reduction. One source; both sides must quote it whole. NIJ CrimeSolutions 
  • Simple drug possession is federal law, and federal prosecution policy diverts it: prosecutors are directed to reserve prosecution "for the most serious manifestations of the offence." That is why London's open-drug unit produced 1,851 seizures and only 75 charges in ten months. No council vote can touch this. PPSC Deskbook 
  • Displacement has a modeled body count: a 23-city simulation estimated that continual involuntary displacement of homeless people who inject drugs would produce 974 to 2,175 additional overdose deaths per 10,000 people over ten years, plus thousands fewer treatment starts. A modeling study, not a trial; projections depend on assumptions. JAMA study 
  • The Charter sets a floor: an Ontario court held that evicting an encampment when a region lacks enough accessible shelter space violates section 7. The new provincial law does not repeal the Charter. legal clinic summary 
  • London's bed arithmetic makes that floor bind: the city has 396 emergency shelter beds and they run consistently full, so large-scale clearance runs into the same wall regardless of the new offence. CBC 
  • Civil-liberties critics document warrantless removal powers from encampments on suspicion of substance use, and fines up to $10,000 or up to six months, in the new Act. CCLA 
  • London's own enforcement experiment is producing referral, not treatment: 18% of the open-drug unit's 1,406 referrals to services were accepted. Enforcement advocates read that as proof outreach alone fails; critics read it as proof enforcement does not create treatment demand. The number is printed; candidates can explain it. CBC 
WHAT IT COST ELSEWHERE
  • London's open-air drug unit runs about 30 officers; at the base-salary floor that is roughly $3.6 million a year of officer time. A redeployment cost rather than new money, since council cannot direct deployment anyway. CBC 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — NOT DERIVABLE FROM PUBLIC DATA

Encampment-clearance costs are not derivable: no London figure is published, and the binding constraint is shelter beds, not dollars. The narrowest levers here belong to the governments whose candidates talk about them most: the province wrote the public-consumption offence, the chief sets enforcement priorities, and the federal Crown controls possession prosecution. Council holds the encampment protocol and the official community-safety strategy. CBC 

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCEThe province wrote the new public-order offence; the chief decides enforcement priorities; the federal Crown controls possession prosecution; council holds the encampment protocol, by-law standards, and the community-safety plan.

Who runs the police: the board question

Not an intervention; the machinery underneath all of them. The police board, not council, sets police policy and budget estimates and hires the chief. Voters electing a council on October 26 are indirectly electing four of the board's seven seats: the three council seats, all held by members up for re-election, plus the council-appointed community seat.

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCE
THE EVIDENCE, THE COSTS, WHO DECIDES
EVIDENCE FOR
  • Every police option above runs through board-and-chief discretion, not council votes. The appointment power is council's most concrete police decision of the term, and CBC notes the board may have new vacancies to fill after the October election. The next multi-year police budget (2028 to 2031) will be negotiated by the board and council chosen October 26. CBC 
  • A board can be pushed: Peterborough's 2025 negotiation produced a 7.8% increase instead of 8.8%, with the chief now presenting bronze, silver, and gold budget options, bronze being the legal minimum. Open Council 
EVIDENCE AGAINST / LIMITS
  • The board itself cannot direct operations; the chief runs deployment by statute. And provincial appointees hold three of the seven seats regardless of how London votes. Open Council 
  • The current board has on-the-record friction: the provincial civilian police commission issued a formal caution to board member Coun. Susan Stevenson in July 2024, citing "denigrating use of language" in social-media posts about homeless Londoners and noting that the code of conduct "requires a higher standard for members of a police services board," while declining a full investigation. CBC 
  • Board composition is a live, sourced critique: all seven current members are white; Black community leaders have asked for outreach on vacancies, and a 2022 request that the province appoint an Indigenous member went unmet. No published evaluation links Ontario board composition to policing outcomes; the governance option's evidence base is thin by construction. CBC 
AT LONDON'S SCALE — ARITHMETIC SHOWN

The arithmetic here is seats, not dollars: four of seven board seats trace to the council elected October 26 (three sitting members, currently the mayor and two councillors, plus one council-appointed community member); the province appoints the other three no matter how London votes. One structural wrinkle carried from the Taxes File: council members who sit on the board also vote on the police budget total at council. CBC 

SHARED — CITY + PROVINCECouncil: its four seats, the budget total, advocacy. The province: three seats, the statute, and the arbitration commission. The board: the chief and policy. The chief: operations.

The drug-death numbers, before you quote either camp

  • The latest official surveillance: Canada's apparent opioid-toxicity deaths fell to 5,608 in 2025, down 23%. British Columbia fell 21%, its first year under 2,000 deaths since 2020. Ontario fell 38% on the federal series. Alberta, the recovery-model province, fell 4%. Definitions differ across provinces (BC counts all unregulated-drug deaths), so compare provinces only through the federal series. federal substance-harms surveillance 
  • Declines this broad, across jurisdictions with opposite drug policies, are why careful researchers on both sides say the death curves cannot cleanly credit or indict either model. The changing illegal supply itself is the confounder. CBC 
  • Where the evidence is genuinely stronger, by outcome: on-site overdose reversal, harm reduction, decisively. Population-level mortality: neither model has consistent evidence. Speed of treatment access: recovery-first's best-documented outcome. And the single strongest mortality intervention in the literature, opioid-agonist treatment, belongs to neither camp exclusively; both models claim to feed it. The costed question for any candidate is how their preferred front door, a hub bed or a consumption site, connects a specific number of Londoners to that treatment, and at what cost. BMJ meta-analysis 

What a costed answer looks like

Any candidate can say this issue matters. These questions ask for numbers and mechanisms — every candidate gets them, equally.

  1. London has 142.8 officers per 100,000 residents, about 20% below the Ontario average, and a first-class constable's base salary is $120,445. How many officers do you want, what does that cost per year (closing the gap to the provincial average is roughly 170 officers and $20M-plus, more than two points of tax), and what would they do, given that no elected official can direct deployment?
  2. Council can only set the police budget's bottom-line total, and the current four-year budget is $672M. What total will you vote for in the next multi-year budget, and will you defend your number at provincial arbitration if the board rejects it, knowing the one adjudicated precedent went mostly the board's way?
  3. London's supervised consumption site closed June 13, and the HART hub's first 33 beds filled the day they opened. Two halves, whatever your philosophy: how many treatment beds is London short and who pays for them, since they're provincial; and tonight, where does the person who isn't ready for treatment use drugs, and who responds when they overdose? Name your legal path and your funder.
  4. London's total Crime Severity Index is down 18.5% since 2019, and its violent index is up about 19% over the same period, both from the same StatCan table. Which number is your benchmark, what target do you commit to by 2030, and which specific line in your platform moves it?
  5. COAST diverts 100 to 150 calls a month and nobody publishes its budget; Denver's civilian teams cut low-level offences 34% but had no effect on serious crime; Toronto's service handles 78% of transferred 911 calls without police. Would you expand London's version, with how many dollars, from whose budget, and which single outcome number will you publish to be judged on?
  6. The prevention programs with real trial evidence are specific: a CBT youth program cut violent-crime arrests 45 to 50%, summer jobs cut them 43%, better lighting cut night-time crime about a third. Name the program model you'd fund, the annual dollars, the neighbourhoods, and the year voters should check whether it worked.
  7. London runs two camera systems: the city's downtown CCTV, whose count and cost are unpublished since the 2024 expansion, and police technology that council can't line-item. Which are you proposing to grow, at what annual operating cost, who watches the feeds, and what rule governs facial recognition?
  8. The police open-drug unit's first ten months: 5,011 calls, 1,851 seizures, 75 charges, and 18% of referrals to services accepted; the courts say encampments can't be cleared while shelters are full, and London's 396 beds run at capacity. After the seizure, where does the person go that has a bed, and what does that cost?

What your ward is wrestling with

This file lands differently on every street.Jump straight to your ward’s own issue list:

DON’T KNOW YOUR WARD? FIND IT BY ADDRESS →
CLAIMS WE COULDN’T VERIFY — SO THEY’RE NOT ON THIS PAGE ▾

These circulate in coverage of this issue but could not be traced to a source that loads and says what’s claimed. We’d rather show you the gap than publish the number.

  • Any independent province-wide police response-time comparison — none exists; "among the worst in Ontario" is the police service's own budget-document claim, known only through CBC's paraphrase.
  • Any methodology behind the police chief's 2023 "third most dangerous city in Ontario" statement — none was published, and StatCan's severity index does not support that reading.
  • COAST's total annual budget — still unpublished after four research passes.
  • London Cares' specific city contract amount — only "fully supported by the City of London" and the $46M system-wide total are public.
  • The Salvation Army withdrawal-management centre's bed count — not published anywhere; this page prints no number.
  • Current London-specific treatment and detox wait times — nothing is published per city; the city's own plan update names shrinking them as a goal without a baseline.
  • Carepoint's annual operating funding — only a $1.795M capital figure circulates, one verification step short.
  • Any post-closure street-impact data after June 13, 2026 — none existed at research time; the first wave will be operator- or advocacy-sourced and should be read with that label.
  • The operational status of London InterCommunity Health Centre's safer-supply program as of July 2026 — unreported anywhere fetchable.
  • London HART hub intake and outcome numbers, and whether the announced second 60-bed London location opened in spring 2026.
  • The "+3,000% hydromorphone seizures" figure — it exists only through a newspaper opinion column's account of police data; no primary release was located.
  • Calgary's widely quoted "+276% drug calls near the consumption site" figure — corroborated only through search excerpts, one verification step short of this page's standard.
  • The circulating "50 ALPR-equipped cruisers" figure — no fetchable source.
  • The current downtown CCTV camera count and operating cost after the 2024 expansion — 2018's 17 cameras at about $70,000 remain the last public anchors.
  • Confirmation that the police body-worn-camera rollout finished by its early-2026 target.
  • Hamilton's police cost per person on a basis comparable to the BMA study — Hamilton did not participate; only a non-comparable gross derivation exists.
  • A per-participant cost for the Chicago youth program, and any published study showing its effects faded at scale — the fade-out claim circulates in commentary only.
  • What Ontario's 2024 consumption-site law does NOT prohibit a municipality from funding — this project drafted a reading of the statute, but it is an unreviewed legal interpretation, so this page does not print it.
  • Council's December 2023 reprimand of a police-board member — reported by CTV but corroborated here only through search excerpts; the provincial commission's 2024 caution, which is fully sourced, appears above instead.
  • Several numbers on this page will move before October 26: StatCan's 2025 crime data (expected late July 2026), the LPS 2025 annual report, the final court ruling on Ontario's consumption-site law, quarterly opioid surveillance, the HART rollout, and the police open-drug unit's quarterly stats. This page will be updated as they land; check the researched date below.